Projected Auto Savings with Hydrogen

Recently Honda announced their hydrogen vehicle, FCX Clarity (Hosaka, 2008). Although this auto has limited production, Figure 1 contains some rough calculations on savings based on my driving habits and mileage. At a lease price of $600 per month and gas costs of about $300 per month (and going up), this makes more sense each time one thinks of filling up. Figure 2 is an extrapolation of these savings based on increases in production and usage.

References:

Hosaka T. (2008, June 16). Honda rolls out new zero-emission, hydrogen fuel cell car for southern California. Associated Press. Retrieved June 20, 2008 from: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080616/japan_honda.html?.v=9

Hydrogen Vehicles - The car that will break the camel’s back?

Source: thebostonchannel.com.

The car that will break the camel’s back?
On January 10, 2008, Tata Motors announced a $2,500 auto (pictured) for the expanding middle in class in India (Nano, 2008). It is a traditional gasoline powered auto.

Extrapolate from the following as US is [currently] major auto market:



---- There will be a huge number of this type of car sold. Other manufacturers are also targeting this market. For example, Nissan announced plans for a $3,000 auto for the India market (Healey, 2007).

Major strategic impacts:

a) Even though these cars will be energy efficient (50 mpg) based on current standards, this market will drain the [oil] well. This impact will occur and come to a head in 2010 – 2020 period.

b) The environment impact will be overwhelming. Current levels will be considered noise. Likewise, this impact will occur and come to a head in 2010 – 2020 period.

c) Bad news – this will push political, social, and geographic conflicts over resources, environmental impacts, and price inflation.

d) Good news – this will push alternative fuels (hydrogen, electrical, etc).

e) Other – current CAFE standards will be irrelevant and a non-issue as other forces and trends will be much stronger.

References:

Healey, J. (2007, October 25). Nissan considering $3,000 car for sale worldwide. USA Today. Retrieved October 26, 2007 from: http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2007-10-25-lnissan-3k_N.htm

Nano. (2008, January 10). India's Tata Motors Unveils $2,500 Car. thebostonchannel.com. Retrieved January 10, 2008 from: http://www.thebostonchannel.com/automotive/15022729/detail.html?rss=bos&psp=news#

Hydrogen Vehicles - Worldwide demand for autos and oil

Demand for automobiles is growing worldwide with economic growth in developing countries. For example, Tata Motors is expected to introduce a $2,500 auto for the India market in mid 2008 and Nissan announced plans for a $3,000 auto for the India market (David, 2007). Motor bikes are popular in many parts of the world and hydrogen power vehicles are being developed for this market (Green Bike, 2007).


Just small percentage changes in these large populations will be huge in terms of absolute grow. For example, the McKinsey Global Institute projects the growth in India’s middle class from the current 50 million to 583 million people by 2025 (as qtd. in Beinhocker, 2007). The oil situation will only get worst.



References:

Beinhocker, E., Farrell, D., and Zainulbhai, A. (2007, August). Tracking the growth of India’s middle class -Over the next two decades, the country’s middle class will grow from about 5 percent of the population to more than 40 percent and create the world’s fifth-largest consumer market. McKinsey Quarter. Retrieved December 1, 2007 from: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Economic_Studies/Country_Reports/Tracking_the_growth_of_Indias_middle_class_2032


Green Bike. (2007, November 15). Green Bike - Rob is Loughborough to see the world's first fuel cell powered motorbike. BBC News. Video. Retrieve from http://www.bbc.co.uk/broadband/mediaplayer/players/bbc2/nb_wm_console.shtml?redirect=console.shtml&lang=en&nbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1&bbram=1&ms3=6&ms_javascript=true&bbcws=2&package=4588723&clip=wl_thu_151107_segment1

Hydrogen Vehicles - Overall Effects on Enviroment

Hydrogen vehicles create zero emissions which will be significant over time. It may take a long time to see a net effect. For example, if the overall market for autos doubles over next 20 years (at current rate, World GDP will double in 15 years) but only 50% of vehicles are hydrogen, the net effect is zero. However, this is much better than an alternative of growth with petroleum and combustion.

The kicker in this scenario of the future may be the corresponding or complementary changes in energy production; such as, home and commercial power generation (Muller, 2008). The technology for hydrogen power in vehicles can be used elsewhere. Electricity is needed to make hydrogen power; hence, with increased demand, electricity production R&D and production should change too (for example, increases solar, wind, nuclear).

References:

Muller, J. (2008, January 7). A Light Bulb Goes On – Willett Kempton sees your car and the electrical grid as a solution to America’s energy problem, not the source of it. Forbes. January 7, 2008. p. 100

The value and fears of projections – A Hydrogen Revolution?

The value and fears of projections – A Hydrogen Revolution?

It is not easy making projections or forecasts as there are so many unknowns. Chances of being wrong are high both in terms of event and timing of event. Change can also involve fear, denial, resistance, and other emotions. Change can be disruptive. However, having a plan or projection is better than having none and having a plan mitigates fear and provides a baseline for discussion, critical thinking, change, growth, and opportunity.

Hydrogen power is important for numerous reasons – energy independence from a political and economic perspective, growth in energy needs, depletion in oil reserves, … , and environmental concerns. The subject is also important from a business development and investment perspective. Although oil is used in many ways, transportation is a primary use. Will there be significant changes?

Table 1 contains some rough projections on changes that may happen in auto industry in next 20 years.

Table 1 – Automobile Production Rough Projections

Source: Author’s projections.

Notes:
1) Annual market growth is based on a) world GDP growing at 6% with most of grow coming from developing countries, China (11%), India (9%), etc, and, b) Toyota, the market leader, forecast their annual worldwide sales at 4% for next several years.

2) Market size uses 2007 as the based and is projected to increase annually by the ‘annual market growth’ assumption. This projection could be significantly low as oil prices of $100 per barrel could be considered low at some time in the near future. Higher energy prices will expedite the development and, perhaps, cause an early replacement of traditional autos.

3) Currently, hydrogen market share is nil but a) almost every major auto maker has a concept car, b) there are approximately 887 hydrogen fueling stations worldwide as of 2007 (Fuel Cells, 2007), c) Honda will have lease vehicle available on limited basis in California in Mid-2008 (Reed, 2007), California has 25 fueling stations and another 10 planned (CA Partnership, 2007).

4) Middle East instability and world economic growth will be major drivers of oil price increases causing this decline. Environmental concerns will also contribute.

5) Hybrids are efficient near-term. Toyota is retro designing most of their product line to hybrid.

Worldwide demand for autos and oil
Demand for automobiles is growing worldwide with economic growth in developing countries. For example, Tata Motors is expected to introduce a $2,500 auto for the India market in mid 2008. Nissan announced plans for a $3,000 auto for the India market (David, 2007). Just small percentage changes in these large populations will be huge in terms of absolute grow. The oil situation will only get worst. Motor bikes are popular in many parts of the world and hydrogen power vehicles are being developed for this market (Green Bike, 2007).

References:

CA Partnership (2007). California Fuel Cell Partnership. Retrieved December 28, 2007 from: http://www.fuelcellpartnership.org/fuel-vehl_map.html

David, R. (2007, December 19). Tata Motors Unveils Details Of '1-Lakh' Budget Car. Forbes Magazine. Retrieved December 28, 2007 from: http://www.forbes.com/markets/2007/12/19/tata-budget-car-markets-equity-cx_rd_1219markets03.html

Fuel Cells. (2007). Worldwide Hydrogen Fueling Stations. Fuel Cells 2000. Retrieved December 28, 2007 from: http://www.fuelcells.org/info/charts/h2fuelingstations.pdf

Green Bike. (2007, November 15). Green Bike - Rob is Loughborough to see the world's first fuel cell powered motorbike. BBC News. Video. Retrieve from http://www.bbc.co.uk/broadband/mediaplayer/players/bbc2/nb_wm_console.shtml?redirect=console.shtml&lang=en&nbram=1&nbwm=1&bbwm=1&bbram=1&ms3=6&ms_javascript=true&bbcws=2&package=4588723&clip=wl_thu_151107_segment1
Reed, J. (2007, November 14). Honda to lease hydrogen fuel-cell cars. Financial Times. Retrieved November 15, 2007 from: www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8139d758-92e0-11dc-ad39-0000779fd2ac.html